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12th March 2014

Blue Sky News Article: When the solution is the problem

The old, but nevertheless good question is how do we understand and calculate how any market will develop during the course of this year?

We can assume how it will be, we can ask a psychic to tell us or we can simply get confused by all the different opinions. Using the BASS Formula to gauge market performance is another option, however, what we really want to know is something for which no one really has the answer.

The question is especially difficult to answer in all of the new emerging markets with their incredible micro and macroeconomic factors which are volatile and each and every one of those factors a problem in themselves. So the solution is to wait and see, and in the meantime to adjust to the given conditions.

Eastern Europe has everything; promising markets and some terrible political turmoil. The countries and their political and sociological history are young so there are no comparable events and available data to really predict the future - not even the near future. The gap between rich and poor, geographically north and south and east and west within the various countries varies incredibly and while the internal speed of growth is swift, the pressure from outside increases.

So what can we do?

I still believe that CEE and all CEPA countries are the future markets in Europe. It is important to look more closely at the situation and translate it as much as possible to the economic language of the west.

For example, data has shown that Ukraine has an incredible number of potential UHNWI in the country, with 500 people falling into this category. For sure this number is real, but now, after the political trouble has escalated, it has become an area with as many problems as it has opportunities. Accounts are being frozen outside the Ukraine, financing banks are speechless and some OEMs are learning that it is crucial to understand the cultural language here more than anywhere else in the world.

Even though we are used to a 7-year cycle in business aviation, we try each and every year to answer the question of how to predict the future.

Light travels in waves, as does sound, and of course water. Any vibration across a solid surface is also considered a wave. And waves creates cycles. Herein lies the interesting question; how in a moving environment we can predict a fixed target?

How can we at least get closer to the real numbers that the market will show us at the end of the year? One solution is the BASS Formula (for those who are precise).

 

And it actually says this:

 

Forecasting is the most important thing in leading a company and predicting a market. Many different factors are involved, thousands of books have been written and it is still not really deciphered. But the three main factors are Cycles - Trends - Patterns. Analysing those three gives you for sure a clearer picture of where you stand at any time.

In addition, one of the other tools is:

Forecasting Triggers

When you are forecasting, you must avoid being so myopically or linearly focused on products or aspects of your industry so you do not notice other factors they could impact the industry’s future.

People have use the ‘Hype Cycle’ in the past to become educated about the promise of an emerging technology within the context of their industry and individual appetite for risk.

Should you make an early move or follow the crowd, seeing what your competitive operator does or going alone when entering new markets? If you’re willing to combine risk taking with an understanding that risky investments don’t always pay off, you could reap the rewards of early adoption.

Is a moderate approach appropriate? Executives who are more moderate understand the argument for an early move but will also insist on a sound cost/benefit analysis when new ways of doing things are not yet fully proven. Should you wait for further maturation?

If there are too many unanswered questions around the commercial viability of an emerging market, it may be better to wait until others have been able to deliver tangible value.

Artice by Dagmar Grossmann

4th March 2014

4th March 2014

my new diet, stick with the luxury life

4th March 2014

Younger, better and everything else...

5 THOUGHTS THAT WILL MAKE YOU INSTANTLY HAPPIER

 

I want to be happy, you want to be happy — everyone wants to achieve this mysterious state of bliss.

Happiness binds the entire universe together. The actions and motives of every living human being are driven by our desire for it. But what sets apart the truly happy tribe from others is that they’ve made the conscious choice to be happy.

Happy people have learned that happiness starts with ourselves; specifically, it sprouts from our thoughts. With just a couple thoughts, you too can join the tribe of happy people all over the world! Start with these five:

	
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1. THIS TOO SHALL PASS.

When we’re in the throes of a powerful emotion or situation, life can feel bleak and hopeless. When life pushes you down — whether you’re dealing with a broken heart, a bruised ego, or an embarrassment — you can counter any thoughts coming up with this one thought:

This too shall pass.

This thought takes the permanence out of the negative emotion or situation and creates space to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Grow your wisdom: Life is in a constant state of flux, and everything will pass.

2. YOU ARE NOT ALONE.

It’s common to get our feet stuck in deep and dark mental places. In dealing with disease, divorce, death or downsizing, it’s easy to become consumed by your grief, and it’s easy to feel like no one has ever felt as bad as you might feel right now. Guess what? Someone else has — practically every living being has felt that exact emotion at one time or another.

You are never alone.

Emotions are like storms; no matter how dark and turbulent, they’ll clear and sunny skies will rise again.

3. OTHER PEOPLE HAVE GOOD INTENTIONS.

It’s easy to think the worst of others. I’m guilty of this, but really it’s just my own mind being pessimistic and negative. This pessimism set me off into an unpleasant mental spin.

Try thinking of others in a positive light.

Assume that they have good intentions. Appreciate and savor your relationships and the love you have to give and receive from others.

4. THERE’S A BRIGHT SIDE TO EVERY SITUATION.

Changing your perspective can do wonders for your mood and for the mood of those around you. Let’s say you begrudgingly must spend the day driving to a distant appointment; instead of grumbling the entire way there, look on the bright side. It might be a beautiful day for a drive! Enjoy the fresh air and listen to some music.

There’s always a bright side.

So find it and drive out those negative thoughts. Happiness is here right now. In fact it’s never been anywhere else but here. Clear the dark storm clouds and rediscover the bright blue sky waiting underneath.

Now smile. It’s not so bad.

5. SLOW DOWN AND BREATHE.

Actually, say this aloud in your head over and over throughout the day.

Slow down and just breathe.

We need this constant reminder. Focus on one thing at a time try to infuse each moment with your attention and presence. Without conscious breathing your life will become riddled with anxiety and turmoil. Make your day a moving meditation.

24th February 2014

Havin a ball at the Zofin Palaca

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